iPhone 16 Series Shipment Forecast for Pre-orders, Q424, Q125

iPhone 16 series will debut today and now we have a shipment forecast for the latest models as well as its sales challenges.

Supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has shared the iPhone 16 series shipment forecast, which could be 88-89 million units through 2024. These numbers reflect an increase from 91 million sales from the iPhone 15 series released last year. An earlier forecast was 87-88 million units.

The increase suggests higher demand for the standard iPhone 16 and share distribution could be the following:

• iPhone 16 – 26%
• iPhone 16 Plus – 6%
• iPhone 16 Pro  – 30%
• iPhone 16 Pro Max – 38%

Launch phase

Kuo said Apple has estimated 15-17 million units for iPhone 16 pre-orders and similar units after the sales phase.

Throughout the third quarter, sales could climb 10 percent year over year compared to the same duration last year. However, the growth has nothing to do with demand, instead, it will perform better than the iPhone 15 Pro Max’s weak sales in the same quarter (compared to Q322).

Q424-Q125:

The fourth quarter will take iPhone 16 series shipments to 63 million units with a 5-7 percent decline compared to Q424.

The shipment will continue to decline in the first quarter of 2025 with a 53-55% quarter-on-quarter reduction. It could be due to the iPhone SE4 launch at a lower price point.

Suppliers

The Cupertino-based tech company is currently relying on Foxconn and Luxshare ICT to assemble iPhones. These two account for 55-60% and 40-45% of the iPhone 16 series shipments.

The analyst believes the pre-order phase would also clear some fog from production plans for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025.

(source)